Danger Signs

Mayhem in Nigeria, the fifth- largest oil supplier to the United States and Africa's most populous country, is escalating. Since mid-December, crime and violence have regularly shut down about 10 percent of the country's oil output. In the last week, production has been cut by nearly 20 percent - a shortfall of 455,000 barrels daily - amid kidnappings of foreign workers, arson against offshore oil installations, bombings of pipelines and lethal clashes between Muslims and Christians.

The economic impact of the loss of Nigerian oil is magnified by other circumstances: the worsening of Iraq's oil industry, the nuclear impasse with Iran, heightening tension with Venezuela and last week's attempted suicide bombings at the main oil processing center in Saudi Arabia. The price of a barrel of crude oil spiked on Friday to nearly $63.

But the world needs a stable Nigeria for reasons that go beyond oil. Nigeria is crucial to all of West Africa, having often provided the military troops and negotiating forums to quell civil war and related violence in neighboring countries. Nigeria is also important to counterterrorism efforts, both as it tries to monitor and defuse an encroaching fundamentalism among its own Muslims and in cooperating with international efforts to secure the strategically vital Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria is also now on the front lines of combating bird flu.

Unfortunately, there are no easy answers to Nigeria's troubles. A big part of the problem is that the people of the country's oil-rich Niger Delta remain deeply impoverished, largely because of endemic corruption in distributing oil wealth and the historical indifference of oil companies to those economic inequities and to environmental devastation in the Delta. At the same time, the militants who claim to represent the Delta people have evolved into criminal gangs, adept at stealing huge amounts of oil to sell on black markets, the proceeds of which are used to buy ever more sophisticated weapons.

Some of the current violence is a backlash against the Nigerian government's recent anti-corruption successes. But overall, Nigeria is not strong enough to solve its own problems. The Bush administration, with its good relations with Nigeria and with oil companies, is well positioned to broker international arrangements that would enhance transparency in the flow of oil dollars and development in the Niger Delta.

Sub-Saharan Africa is on track to double its oil production in the next 10 years, much of it from Nigeria. The American government should pay more attention to this region.

NYT

Bird Flu Update #20

Bird flu is spreading unreported in parts of Nigeria as farmers, mistrustful of the government's promise of compensation, are reluctant to inform authorities about outbreaks, a poultry producer group said.

Officials are culling diseased fowl and healthy flocks on neighboring farms to contain the virus that has spread to at least nine of Nigeria's 36 states since January. Some farmers aren't disclosing infected birds because killing them would remove their only source of income and because they are skeptical of getting government aid, said Auwalu Haruna, secretary of the Poultry Association of Nigeria.

``They say why do you trust these guys? Up to now, what have they done?'' Haruna said in a Feb. 25 interview in the northern city of Kano. ``The key to curbing this problem is for people to know their livelihoods are safe. If that's not done, people won't report.''

International aid organizations are counting on compensation payments being made this week to spur more culling in Africa's most-populous nation. Officials say the money is needed to help to stem the trade of infected poultry, an increasing concern after an initial outbreak was confirmed in domestic fowl in neighboring Niger today.

The spreading H5N1 strain of avian influenza in birds increases the risk of human infection and creates more opportunity for the virus to mutate into a pandemic form capable of killing millions of people.

Nigeria poses the most serious bird-flu concern because of the density of its domestic poultry and human populations, said Joseph Domenech, chief veterinary officer with the UN's Food & Agriculture Organization, in a Feb. 24 phone interview from Rome.

Difficult to Kill

Nigeria, which borders on Benin, Niger, Chad and Cameroon, has the equivalent of one fowl for each of its 140 million people. About 60 percent of the country's poultry are raised in backyards.

``It's very difficult to kill all the animals'' infected by the virus, Domenech said.

``People are afraid'' to report diseased birds without a guarantee of compensation, said Abdulsalami Nasidi, head of Nigeria's national health task force charged with coordinating efforts to halt the spread of the virus. ``They don't believe the government will do it. Once it's started, the reporting will happen,'' Nasidi said in a Feb. 24 interview in the capital Abuja.

President Olusegun Obasanjo, himself one of the country's largest poultry producers, announced in mid February a ``relief package to cushion expected losses by poultry farmers as a result of the compulsory extermination of birds infected by the flu virus.''

`Very Small' Compensation

The compensation amounts to 250 naira ($1.94) per chicken, 2,500 for each turkey and 20,000 naira for an ostrich destroyed in the avian-flu fight.

``It's very small,'' said Abdullahi Saidu, whose 28,000 chickens died in an outbreak a month ago in Kano state. ``A chicken costs about 1,000 naira. With that 250 per chicken, you cannot restock the farm. You can only stock maybe one quarter.''

Kano, the center of Nigeria's avian-flu outbreaks, is a major trading hub for people on the southwestern fringe of the Sahara Desert, including southern Niger, where an outbreak was confirmed by the World Organization for Animal Health today. The virus was found in domestic ducks in Magaria, one of the final towns in Niger on the trading route to Kano.

No Income

Saidu, 40, said he spent 15 years building his business, which he estimated was worth about 50 million naira ($388,000) before the avian flu attack. He's not had an income for a month and wonders how he will feed his four children and the 65 people who work for him.

``If the government assists us and gives us some grants, we can come back to business,'' he said. ``If they don't, we don't know how long God will keep us alive.''

The government is reviewing documentation to be satisfied that compensation payments will only be given to those who are eligible, said Bamidele Dada, Minister of State for Agriculture.

``We know that at this time of the year, normally we have all kinds of factors which can contribute to bird mortality -- Newcastle disease, heat stress and so on,'' he said in a Feb. 24 interview in Abuja. ``That is why the documentation, backed up by the analysis of our teams, is also being taken into account.''

Kidnapping, Riots

Government action is complicated by other concerns, including the militants who attacked oil facilities run by Royal Dutch Shell Plc's venture and kidnapped nine foreign oil workers. The Nigerian government also was distracted by violent demonstrations over cartoons depicting the prophet Muhammad in which at least 16 people were killed earlier this month.

``You have a government that's thinking about riots, about the Niger Delta, about HIV/AIDS,'' said Victoria Kwakwa, a leading economist with the World Bank in Abuja. ``It's not going to be easy.''

Nigerian poultry farmers will receive their first batch of imported bird flu vaccine this week, giving them an additional weapon to prevent the virus's spread. One million doses of vaccine from Israel will arrive in the West African nation on March 1, according to the poultry association.

Minister's Farm

Delays in providing assistance to affected farmers risk dragging more people into poverty, Kwakwa said. The National Bureau of Statistics estimates 54 percent of Nigerians can't afford a food basket that would give them 2,900 calories a day.

``The consequences for individual farmers and for poverty are significant because you have smallholders for whom this is their major source of revenue,'' she said in a Feb. 24 interview. ``Time is of the essence. You need to do it quickly, because people's livelihoods are affected.''

Africa's first avian-flu outbreak was reported on Feb. 7 after about 45,000 birds died on a poultry farm owned by Sports Minister Saidu Balarabe Sambawa in Kaduna state.

``We, the farmers, believe that if this problem was identified on another person's farm, not a minister's farm, as you speak to me now, nothing would have been done,'' said Haruna of the poultry association. ``Generally in Africa, governments think they are doing their people a favor to do anything for them. They only respond to what is affecting them personally.''

BLOOMBERG.COM

US Antiterrorism Team in Nigeria

Lagos, Nigeria, 02/27 - The United States government has sent six anti- terrorism experts to Nigeria to help curb the growing spate of violence in the African nation`s oil-producing Niger Delta region, the private Punch newspaper reported Sunday, quoting diplomatic sources.

The experts were drawn from a detachment of an intelligence unit trailing Al-Qaeda operatives in the mountains of Afghanistan, the paper said.

"The six terrorist experts were briefed by the National Security Adviser and the various intelligence chiefs before they were attached to the various intelligence units in the field," the paper added.

Punch did not say when exactly the experts arrived.

Three Americans are among the nine foreign oil workers who were abducted by the Ijaw-led militants in the Niger Delta on 18 February.

The abduction came barely two weeks after the militants, from the little- known Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), released unharmed another group of four foreign oil workers it had abducted in the same area.

MEND is seeking control of the country`s oil resources in the delta as well as the release of two Ijaw leaders, former State Governor Diepreye Alamieyeseigha and militia leader Mujahid Asari Dokubo, both of whom are being held by the federal government on different charges.

The group`s attacks on oil platforms and pipelines, which started late last year, have cut Nigeria`s daily oil production of 2.5 million barrels by 20 per cent and has forced Shell to evacuate hundreds of its staffers from a part of the oil region.

Nigeria is the fifth largest supplier of oil to the US, which explains Washington`s interest in developments in the country`s oil industry.

MEND recently released the pictures of the abducted oil workers and hinted it was in no hurry to release them, despite appeals from several quarters.

Bird Flu Update #19

Bird flu has been found in two new states in Nigeria, which reported Africa's first cases of the disease in birds, an official statement said on Sunday.

"Following ... confirmatory tests in samples ... the Presidential Committee of the Prevention and Management of Avian Flu confirms the occurrence of the avian flu in two new States," said the statement issued by the Avian Flu Crisis Management Center.

The outbreak in the northeastern state of Yobe and central state of Yobe Nasarawa brought to nine the number of locations already identified with the disease in west African country.

"The presidential committee will offer support to these States by providing personal protective equipment to aid proper management of the outbreak and training/enlightenment of local veterinary officials, poultry farmers and other stakeholders," the statement said.

It said the northwest state of Zamfara was also "at risk because of its contiguity to other states where the outbreak had been recorded."

On Wednesday, Mohammed Belhocine, the World Health Organization 's representative in Nigeria said by telephone that Nigeria was testing one old woman who died last week and two kids to find out whether they are the first human cases of the bird flu in Africa.

The statement, however, reiterated "that there are, presently, no reported cases of the avian flu virus in human beings in Nigeria."

Nigeria is the first country on the African continent to report an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus which has claimed at least 92 lives, mostly in Asia, since 1997.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned on Wednesday the bird flu continues to spread in Nigeria and could cause "a regional disaster."

Source: Xinhua

Militants Expose Nigeria's Underbelly

THERE is no prize for guessing that the militants were going to strike and abduct more expatriate hostages. There is also no prize for guessing that the Federal government would be clueless when that happens, and the reason for saying so is obvious. But more of that later. The dismissal by the government of any talk that it had reached an understanding with the militants, during the first hostage crisis, was thought by perspective observers as mere public relation ruse to mask the real intention of government, to allow for more opportune time to meet some of the demands of the militants.

And then perhaps develop means to infiltrate the militants, and disorganise them. The sort of thing serious government do all over the world. But, alas, all those who believed in government’s strategic calculation, including this writer, were terribly let down, because, it has since emerged that the government had no clear game plan at all. Which is a surprise and shows poor judgement or gross incompetence. Not the first time such errors would be happening, and I dare say it will not be the last.

When the government was huffing and puffing about no deals with the militants, the question is - on what frame work was it really basing its position on? Was it on the grounds that it had routed the militants, and had broken up their organisation? These questions go to the heart of the earlier poser that the government would be clueless should they decide to abduct more people as the present case has amply demonstrated. Now, if the government deprecated any talks with the militants, it has been forced yet again, on the pain of execution of the hostages to constitute a negotiating team to resolve this problem. Furthermore, the initial intransigence of the government has been exposed to be a product of foolishness nothing more. First, you play hard ball after, or, if you are certain you have obtained upper hand in a crisis situation, and you want to smoke out the militants and entrap them. Otherwise, you comply with the terms of your deal, because the government is still very much in a weak position. Instead what the government did was to play to the gallery. This is so because, for instance, no one can now recall any arrest being made, or claims by the government that it had broken up the organisation, or if by brute force, any military breakthrough in occupying secret hide outs of the militants. If, therefore, their organisation is still intact, why did government think it had the upper hand, and can call their bluff? Questions, questions and more questions. So, the impression given by government that it had intimidated the militants to obtain the release of four hostages is patently false and misleading. And that is why the crisis has erupted again, to the dismay of many people. Now, it is important to note that the militants could not have risked their lives, limbs and organise themselves in this sort of struggle over social, political and economic demands and then fold their tents and go home on sighting agents of government, leaving unresolved their key demands. This kind of supposition is patently illogical. Furthermore, it should be recalled that the release of the four hostages was done through negotiations and not by military conquest. There was in this instance no trophy on the table to be displayed by the government to the public, yet a certain delusion seemed to have swept through government circles. So, it can be seen that the government misfired by failing to honour whatever understanding it reached with them. The decision by government to use the army to frighten the militants by bombing the creeks and villages has boomeranged. Was the President clear headed on the matter? The answer is a resounding no. His authorisation of military action seen as the latest trigger on the hostage crisis, has shown how far removed the President is from the situation on the ground. A number of reasons can be responsible for the President’s action. One, his military background, secondly, the level of intelligence guidance he received. From the current debacle, it is obvious that both had been of little use to the government and the country. The President’s exploits in the battle field during the civil war is more today an albatross than an asset. The reason being that the kind of warfare engaged by the militants is done in a terrain the Nigerian military have not yet mastered. And when an environment is unfamiliar to you there is very little you can do to secure any success. What is more, the communities around where the militants operate are unlikely to co-operate with the military, who they see as their enemies. And the President, who despite what he has since become, psychologically views the surrender instrument he received from Biafrans as his highest personal accomplish-ment. And this has turned him into a super patriot. Nothing must endanger the unity of the country, any thing that threatens it must be crushed. Left behind by the march of times, the President may not understand that the young militants fired by youthful zeal do not necessarily share his vision. Nigeria is an unmitigated disaster to them, and that is why they are fighting. With this sort of predictable mind set, it is obvious he did not get the best advice. The consequence is the public humiliation of restarting talks with the militants on the same issue that provoked the first hostage crisis. Secondly, the intelligence capabilities of the system is with due respect to them, over rated. It is not just in Nigeria, in many other places. The 9/11 incident in America is a stark example and demonstrates this clearly. The incompetence in the intelligence gathering circle is numbing, and the Niger Delta is no different. Are they on their toes? Perhaps a yawn is the best answer.